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THE DISEASE BURDEN ASSOCIATED WITH OVERWEIGHT AND OBESITY
Chapter 2 - Aviva Must,PhD and Nicola M. McKeown,MD Department of Public Health and Family Medicine Tufts University School of Medicine , Boston, MA
February 2008
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I Introduction

Several epidemiological studies have considered the impact of increasing body weight, body mass index (BMI) and other anthropometric measurements on the risk of chronic disease (1, 2), including coronary heart disease (CHD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension, stroke, and cancers of the breast, endometrium, prostate and colon (3).   Though previous observational studies have used BMI as a measure of general or overall adiposity, growing evidence suggests that a central (abdominal) fat distribution pattern, as reflected by a higher waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) may be more related to risk than elevated body weight, particularly among older adults (2, 4-6).  For example, individuals with a higher proportion of abdominal fat have a greater risk of developing coronary heart disease (5, 6), type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) (7-9) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) related morbidity and mortality (2, 4, 10, 11) than those with a lower proportion.  Using waist circumference data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), Li and colleagues (12) have found that the prevalence of abdominal obesity has increased continuously over the past 15 years.  Abdominal obesity, as reflected by WHR, presumably contributes to the risk of CVD through its mediated effects on other cardiovascular risk factors, such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, and insulin-resistance glucose intolerance (2, 13).  The metabolic syndrome, a condition characterized by central obesity, disturbed glucose and insulin metabolism, mild dyslipidemia and hypertension, clusters these obesity-related risk factor (14).  Recent estimates indicate that the prevalence of metabolic syndrome is increasing in the US (15), with approximately 40% over the age of 60 years affected. In addition, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome is also increasing among adolescents (12). The metabolic syndrome has been linked with increased risk of both type 2 DM and CVD (16-18)  

Some researchers have suggested that waist circumference is a better predictor of obesity-related health risk than BMI (19, 20).  Others, however, are reluctant to replace BMI with an abdominal adiposity measurement, such as waist circumference or WHR, as the only clinical measurement to indicate health risks associated with overweight and obesity (21, 22), because both general and abdominal adiposity are independent risk factors for certain diseases.  Nevertheless, both arise as a consequence of weight gain, and conversely both respond to weight loss.  Therefore, it is important to elucidate the mechanisms and independent roles of body fat distribution on the etiology of chronic diseases. 

Weight fluctuations as a result of repeated failures maintain weight loss have also been associated with increased risk of developing chronic diseases (23, 24)  and excess mortality (23, 25). Although earlier studies suggested that weight fluctuation is associated with increased mortality, those findings may reflect inadequate or incomplete measures, or failure to incorporate variables that accurately characterize weight changes. Difficulties in determining whether the changes are weight gain, weight loss or weight flux with limited time points, together with the need to distinguish between intentional and unintentional weight loss, increase the complexity of examining weight flux in relation to disease risk.  In the Chicago Western Electric Company Study, in which multiple weight measures clearly discerned between weight gain, weight loss, and weight variability, weight flux did not appear to be a predictor of increased mortality (26).  Evidence from the British Regional Heart Study suggested that increased mortality associated with weight loss and weight fluctuation was due to the effects of preexisting disease and smoking rather than the effects of weight loss and weight flux per se (27). 

While excess body weight is clearly associated with increased risk of mortality, the optimal body weight to minimize mortality risk is equivocal.   Whereas morbid obesity has been clearly linked to higher mortality rates (28), the relation between low to moderate body weight and all-cause mortality is less clear (29).   Several observational studies have reported a U- or J-shaped association between overweight and mortality, (11, 30-32), yet other studies have found a gradual increase in mortality with increasing weight, particularly among non-smokers (33-35).   Furthermore,  some have questioned whether the recommended BMI cut-off points for determining overweight and obesity are applicable for identifying health risks associated with adiposity regardless of ethnicity status (36-38).  In a study of 527,265 men and women, although an increased risk of death was observed among those individuals in the highest and lowest BMI category, upon further restriction to healthy, non-smokers, the risk of death was associated with overweight and obesity status only (11).  Thus, although the curve’s shape relationship between BMI and mortality is  debatable, observational studies have consistently reported that adults with a BMI greater than 30 kg/m2 have higher mortality rates (11, 28, 33, 39).

Clearly, the health consequences and compromised quality of life associated with obesity provide major incentives to abate the continuing obesity epidemic.  However, despite recognition of these effects, the epidemic of overweight and obesity has not reversed and in minority groups continues to escalate (40-42). Levels are also high in much of the developed (43) and developing world (44).  According to data from the continuing NHANES, 71% of men and 62% of women are overweight or obese, with prevalence varying among the three major racial/ethnic groups in the U.S (42).  As prevalence increases, the rising economic costs of obesity continue to be a major health burden for national health economies (45).  Recent estimates indicate that obesity accounts for 7% of direct health care costs in the US, with diseases such as CHD, type 2 DM and osteoarthritis accounting for 48 billion dollars of total obesity-attributable medical costs annually (46).   Furthermore, compared with adults of normal weight, adults with BMI >40 had an approximately 64% higher risk of diabetes, a 54% higher risk of high blood pressure, a 9% higher risk for high cholesterol, a 17% for higher risk for asthma, a 34% higher risk for arthritis, and a 32% higher risk for generally fair or poor health (47).   Fortunately, mounting evidence indicates that many of the health risks associated with obesity can be reversed with weight loss (48).  In the Framingham Heart Study, weight loss was associated with improvements in blood pressure and cholesterol levels (49).  Other studies have confirmed that weight loss can improve metabolic risk factors among overweight persons with hypertension, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance and type 2 DM (50-55).   The prevalence of obesity has also increased in children in several countries including the US, China, Brazil and Russia (56).  Obesity in children is associated with an increased risk for many obesity-related diseases including diabetes and CVD risk factors (57-59), left ventricular hypertrophy related to hypertension (60),  and metabolic syndrome (61) although the utility of a diagnosis of metabolic syndrome has been challenged (57, 62).

Because body fat distribution is linked to obesity and is of particular importance in the etiology of certain chronic diseases, this chapter will provide the reader with an overview of the epidemiological evidence linking both overweight and body fat distribution to the risk of several chronic diseases in adults.  This chapter will complement Chapter 1, in which the indicators of obesity are covered in detail, and Chapter 13, which provides a full discussion of the pathophysiology of obesity-related health conditions.

II  Cardiovascular disease risk factors and cardiovascular disease 

1. Cardiovascular Risk Factors   

a. Hypertension

Both cross-sectional (63-65) and prospective studies (66, 67) have linked obesity to hypertension.  Recent estimates suggest that, after adjustment for other risk factors (such as age, BMI, degree of weight cycling, physical activity, smoking, and alcohol consumption), each kilogram increase in body weight increases the risk for developing hypertension by 4.4% (68).  In a nationally representative sample (69), the prevalence of elevated blood pressure dramatically increased with increasing weight, particularly among individuals aged less than 55 years.  Similarly, among postmenopausal women, the risk of developing high blood pressure doubled with either a high BMI or high WHR (2), suggesting that both general and abdominal obesity are important risk factors.  These observational studies are corroborated by clinical intervention trials, which have consistently found that weight loss effectively lowers blood pressure (70, 71).  In the Framingham study (72), a weight loss of 6.8 kg or more led to a 28% reduction in the risk of hypertension (RR = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.49 – 1.05) for middle-aged adults and a 37% reduction for older adults (RR = 0.63; 95% CI: 0.42 – 0.95). The study also reported that sustained weight loss over 4 years resulted in a 22% reduction in hypertension risk among middle-aged adults (RR = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.60 – 1.03) and a 26% reduction (RR = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.56 – 0.97) in older adults.  Overall, it appears that the prevalence of hypertension increases even with relatively small increases in body weight (68, 73).  Furthermore, in hypertensive subjects, overweight is associated with cardiovascular abnormalities such as increased progression of left ventricular hypertrophy (74)(75). Another study showed that in addition to a reduction in blood pressure, weight loss and exercise may induce favorable changes in left ventricular structure related to cardiovascular events (76).  Given that high blood pressure represents one of the most common modifiable risk factors for CVD risk, obesity-related hypertension could be reversed with weight loss, thus reducing CVD risk at the population level.  

b. Dyslipidemia 

Dyslipidemia is characterized by elevated total cholesterol and triglyceride levels, normal to elevated LDL cholesterol, reduced HDL cholesterol and raised low-density lipoprotein apo B.  Several observational studies (64, 65, 77-81) have observed associations between body weight and plasma lipoproteins.  In the Framingham Heart Study, weight gain over a 26-year follow-up period was associated with adverse lipid profiles and weight loss was associated in improvements in cholesterol (82).  Other studies have found that changes in body weight are associated with changes in lipid concentrations (55, 83, 84).   Findings from the Framingham Offspring Cohort provide further evidence that BMI is significantly and linearly associated with total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations, and is inversely associated with HDL cholesterol in nonsmoking men and women (65); the latter observation is consistent with other studies (64, 85).  In contrast to weight gain, weight loss and exercise may result in lower LDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels, decreases in the total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio, and increases in HDL cholesterol levels (86, 87).  Furthermore, cohort (88), case-control (89) and intervention studies (90) have found that a high LDL to HDL cholesterol ratio, as well as high triglyceride to HDL cholesterol ratio and small LDL-size in the presence of hypertriglyceridemia, are associated with the highest CVD risk (91).  This unfavorable lipid profile is commonly found in obese adults (92). 

c. Hyperinsulinemia

Insulin resistance is a condition characterized by increased insulin production and impaired glucose tolerance, and is probably the most frequent abnormality seen in association with central or visceral abdominal adiposity (93, 94).   Insulin resistance may underlie a number of other metabolic disorders including hypertension, hyperglycemia and impaired glucose tolerance, hypertriglyceridemia, and hypercholesterolemia (14).  This clustering of risk factors has been termed insulin resistance syndrome, syndrome X or metabolic syndrome and is discussed in detail in Chapter 9.  It is worth noting, however, that although each individual risk factor conveys only a small increase in CVD risk, the overall impact on CVD risk is substantial due to the coincidence of these risk factors (95). 

Increasing central obesity has been independently associated with insulin resistance, hyperinsulinemia and a progressive increase in insulin and glucose concentration in response to an oral glucose tolerance test (96).  Some have proposed that central obesity promotes insulin resistance through increased levels of free fatty acids which causes the muscle tissue to utilize more fat fuel thereby impairing the insulin-mediated uptake and utilization of glucose.  The accumulation of free fatty acids is also associated with oxidative stress and the impairment of microvascular functions (97-100).  Central obesity may also induce insulin resistance through release of inflammatory cytokines such as IL-6, which in turn impair insulin action in diverse tissues (101, 102). Alternatively, insulin resistance in obesity may be attributed to both a decrease in insulin receptors and intracellular post-receptor defects in insulin action (103, 104).  Furthermore, abnormal secretion of several adipocyte hormones such as leptin (105, 106), adiponectin (106) and  ghrelin (107), which are primarily regulated by insulin-induced changes of adipocyte metabolism, may be potential targets for managing obesity and insulin resistance. 

Insulin resistance has been associated with weight gain in some (108, 109), but not all observational studies (110, 111).   In young adults, weight gain over a 7-year follow-up period was positively associated with concentrations of fasting glucose and insulin (112)..  Wilson and colleagues found that weight gain over 16 years predicted development of features of the insulin resistance syndrome (113).  However, it has been proposed that insulin resistance is an adaptation for maintaining stable weight, such that the oxidation of fat tends to be favored over its storage and over the oxidation of glucose (114).  Data from several observational studies of different ethnic groups support this hypothesis that higher fasting insulin is associated with lower weight gain (110, 111, 115).  Interestingly, conflicting data have been found in children indicating that hyperinsulinemia and insulin resistance may favor weight gain (116). 

In women, the body fat distribution pattern often changes with progression through menopause (117).  Greater increases in waist circumferences and WHR in postmenopausal women compared to women who remain premenopausal may contribute to increase risk of chronic diseases, such as type 2 DM.  Van Pelt et al. (118) in a large cohort of healthy postmenopausal women found that waist circumference was significantly associated with hyperinsulinemia and elevated triglyceride concentrations among women with a normal range of BMI (24-28 kg/m2)Furthermore, the combination of insulin resistance and the accumulation of visceral adipose tissue in the abdominal compartment contribute to the most unfavorable metabolic risk profiles in post-menopausal women (119).

 

2. Cardiovascular Disease

a. Obesity and CHD risk

Several studies have found a strong association between obesity and CHD risk (120-122).  Again, obesity is strongly linked to several cardiovascular risk factors including diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia.  These risk factors could represent intermediate steps in the causal pathway between obesity and CHD risk; therefore, considerable debate exists over whether adjustment for these risk factors is desirable or represents overcontroland introduces, rather than controls, bias (123).  Most observational studies that did not control for risk factors reported associations between BMI and CHD (10, 120, 121, 124).  In the Nurses’ Health Study, the relative risk (RR) of CHD was over three times higher among women with BMI’s of >29 kg/m2 compared to those with BMI’s of less than 21 kg/m2, after adjustment for age, smoking, menopausal status, hormonal use and parental history of CHD (122).  After excluding women with self-reported diabetes or hypertension, the magnitude of the risk of CHD between the same extreme categories of BMI was attenuated, but remained moderate (RR 3.6 versus 2.6).  A recent study from an English cohort found that almost 60% of the 10-year coronary risk in this population was attributable to BMI >25 kg/m2 (125). Although this study did not control for hypertension and dyslipidemia, they observed that systolic blood pressure and total cholesterol increased sharply with increasing BMI among men with WHR less than 0.95 and was high at all levels of BMI among men with WHR exceeding 0.95.  Similarly, observation studies that controlled for one or more coronary risk factors in the analyses found that while BMI remained independently associated with CHD risk, associations tended to be attenuated (5, 39, 120, 126).  In 1998, the American Heart Association (AHA) concluded that obesity was a independent coronary heart disease risk factor (127) Other studies support the AHA’s statement that obesity increases the risk of CHD events (128-131), although other CHD risk factors such as hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes might explain some, but not all,  of the association between obesity and CHD (131).  Furthermore, a large international, case-control study reported that in all regions of the world, for both men and women, abdominal obesity increased the population attributable risk of myocardial infarction, (one of the most common CHD events) to 80.2%, from 75.8% attributed from hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia (132).  At the population level, obesity appears to be a well-defined and consistent hazard for CHD.                                                                   

In contrast to the findings of studies of young and middle-aged adults (39, 126, 133), a direct relation between BMI and CHD risk has not consistently been found among older age groups (>60 years) (5, 134, 135).  Rimm and colleagues (5) found that among men <65 years of age, the risk of CHD increased threefold (RR 3.44; 1.67-7.09) for men with a BMI greater than 33 compared with lean men (BMI <23.0), yet in older men the risk was substantially lower (1.26; 95% CI 0.37-4.30) between the same extreme categories.   Other prospective studies have reported a lack of association between BMI and coronary disease among older populations (134)(135). These age-related differences in obesity and CHD risk may reflect early onset coronary artery disease incidence among overweight persons, changes in the relative proportion of fat free and lean body mass with age (136) or weight loss due to a sub-clinical disease (137).     

b. Body fat distribution, weight change and CHD risk

A growing body of evidence indicates that abdominal visceral adiposity may have more significant health consequences than BMI on CVD incidence and mortality (2, 4-6, 138).   While the exact mechanism is unknown, it is postulated that excess abdominal adiposity may be more predictive of CVD risk than BMI because of its stronger association with other cardiovascular risk factors (139).   Furthermore, a positive association between abdominal visceral fat and pathological changes of the coronary arteries indicate that the process of coronary atherosclerosis would have occurred even before individuals are clinically diagnosed for CHD (140).    Rexrode and colleagues (6)  found that after adjustment for BMI and other cardiac risk factors, women with a WHR greater than 0.88 were more than 3 times as likely to develop CHD during an 8-year follow-up compared to women with a WHR of less than 0.72.  In this same cohort, waist circumference was also significantly associated with increased risk of CHD, even after controlling for BMI (6).   Another large population-based cohort found that WHR was positively associated with the incidence of CHD in both younger and older women while BMI was related to CHD only among women aged 55 years or under (141).  Several other longitudinal studies also observed associations between abdominal obesity and CHD among middle-aged and older women (128, 142).  Using a similar methodology in a large prospective study of men, Rimm et al (5) found that in men <65 years of age, BMI was strong predictor of CHD, whereas after age 65, WHR was a better predictor of risk among men.   In contrast, another prospective study from a different cohort found that abdominal obesity was an independent risk factor for CHD in middle-aged men (18).  Interestingly, Rexrode et al (143) found a modest relationship between abdominal obesity, as measured by either WHR or waist circumference, and risk of CHD both in middle-aged and older men. These associations were reduced substantially when BMI was accounted for. In a  case-control study, Sonmez et al (144) did not observe WHR to be statistically different between the age groups of male-CHD cases.  As also shown in the WHO MONICA study (145) the sensitivity and specificity of detecting abdominal adiposity may be population-specific. Furthermore, measures of abdominal obesity such as waist circumference may complement BMI assessment in cardiovascular risk assessment (146, 147).  Specific thresholds of waist circumference within BMI categories may be required to identify those at increased risk of CHD, however.

Weight gain, even in modest amounts (5-7.9 kg), has been associated with increased risk of CVD (122, 126).   In fact, Willet and colleagues estimated that for every kilogram increase in body weight, the risk of developing CHD among women increased 3.1% (122).  Furthermore, fluctuations in body weight have also been associated with CHD risk (23, 148).  In the Framingham Heart Study, individuals who fluctuated in body weight, as reflected in large relative standard error of the regression coefficient, experienced more CHD events that individuals who maintained a normal weight (23).  In the Nurses Health Study,  weight gain from age 18 to age 55 was significantly associated with future risk of CHD after adjustment for BMI (149).

Rapid weight gain in childhood has been shown to be associated with CHD later in life. Individuals with a low weight at birth who gain weight rapidly after 1 year of age are at an elevated risk for developing CHD in later in life (150)(151).

3. Obesity, body fat distribution and risk of stroke 

In contrast to the epidemiological studies linking obesity and CHD risk, fewer studies have examined the association between obesity and stroke incidence and mortality (152-157).  Current evidence for an association between general obesity and risk of stroke is conflicting, with some studies suggesting that a higher BMI is associated with stroke incidence (126, 154, 156, 157), while others report no association (4, 152, 155, 158, 159).  In the Nurses’ Health Study, the risk of ischemic stroke was directly related to BMI, with women whose BMI was greater than 32 kg/m2 at 2.4 (RR 2.4; 95% CI 1.6-3.5) greater risk of ischemic stoke compared to those with a BMI of <21 kg/m2 (156). In contrast, the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was inversely related to obesity in the same cohort, with highest risk among the leanest subjects.  Using a similar methodology in a large prospective study of men, Walker et al. (155), reported no association between BMI and incidence of total stroke, of which approximately 70% were ischemic strokes.  Interestingly, recent studies demonstrate a significant association between BMI and risk of stroke among men (160-162), especially for total stroke and ischemic stroke.

It has been suggested that abdominal obesity, as measured by WHR, is a better predictor of stroke than BMI.  Men with a WHR of >0.98 were twice as likely to suffer a stroke compared to men with a WHR <0.89 (155).  In women, these associations seem less consistent (128, 163).   Significant associations between WHR and stroke incidence have been reported in other observational studies as well (4, 153, 163-165).


III  Diabetes Mellitus

1. Obesity and type II diabetes mellitus

Approximately 200 million people in the world have diabetes, and the number is predicted to rise to over 300 million by the year 2025 (166).   In the US, an estimated 64%-74% incident cases of type 2 DM could be prevented if BMI’s were below 25 kg/m2 (167).  The prevalence of diabetes was stable across all BMI groups over the past 40 years, whereas other co-morbid conditions related to obesity, such as high blood pressure and dyslipidemia, have declined over time within BMI groups (168).   Both cross-sectional (69)(169-171) and prospective cohort studies (172-174)  have consistently found strong positive associations between BMI and risk for type II diabetes mellitus.   In the Nurses’ Health Study the relative risk of diabetes for women with a BMI of 25.0-29.9 kg/m2 increased 8-fold, for those with BMI 30-34.9 kg/m2 increased 20-fold, and for those with a BMI of 35 kg/m2 or greater increased 39-fold, compared with those with a BMI < 23.0 kg/m2(175).  The steep, linear risk gradient gives larger studies, in which there are adequate data to have a very lean referent, highly elevated relative risks. Other studies have found that the risk for developing diabetes increases exponentially in both men and women with increasing BMI (2, 69, 173, 176).  For example, a recent prospective study in men shows an increased incidence risk of type 2 diabetes across BMI quintiles, with the most dramatic increase from the 4th (BMI 25.4-27.2) to the 5th quintile (27.2-54.2) (177).

2. Body fat distribution, weight change and type II diabetes

In addition to BMI, other independent determinants that predict the risk of type II diabetes include WHR (2, 8, 171, 178), waist circumference (173, 178-180), weight gain or loss, and duration of obesity (49, 173, 181).  Folsom and colleagues (2)  found that women with a low BMI had markedly elevated diabetes risk if they also had a high WHR.   In contrast, Chan et al (173) found that WHR was only weakly associated with risk of type 2 DM in men after controlling for BMI, yet waist circumference remained an independent predictor of type 2 DM risk.  Likewise, a 13-year follow-up study indicated that waist circumference was better than WHR in predicting type 2 DM in men (177).  Lean and colleagues (179)  found that among men and women with a large waist circumference (≥102 and ≥88 respectively) the risk of developing type 2 DM increased 4.5 and 3.8 fold, respectively.  Because greater waist circumference accounts for greater abdominal fat, especially visceral fat (146), it is more closely related to insulin sensitivity than the subcutaneous fat (182); this might explain the consistent association between waist circumference and type 2 DM.

Prospective studies have shown that weight gain, even modest weight gain, increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes (17, 172, 173, 176, 181, 183).  Recent estimates suggest that for every kilogram of increase in body weight the risk for developing diabetes increases 5.4% (176).  Wannamethee and colleagues (181)  prospectively examined the relation between weight change and the incidence of type 2 diabetes in a cohort of middle-aged British men over a 12-year follow-up period.  After adjustment for age, initial BMI, smoking, physical activity, high blood pressure and recall of CHD, the risk of developing type 2 diabetes increased 1.6-fold among those who gained substantial weight (>10%) compared to men who maintained stable weight.  A steady increase in type 2 diabetes risk has also been observed among men and women who gained weight after adolescence (172, 173).   Conversely, weight loss has been associated with reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes.  Weight management through lifestyle modification has been recommended for the prevention and management of type 2 DM (184).  A structured and intensive lifestyle program involving participant education, individualized counseling, reduced dietary fat and energy intake, regular physical activity, and frequent participant contact are necessary to produce long-term weight loss of as much as 5–7% of starting weight (185).  The use of weight loss medications and bariatric surgery may be useful in the treatment of overweight persons with type 2 diabetes (186), but such medical intervention is recommended only in conjunction with lifestyle strategies for severely obese patients or in the presence of obesity-related co-morbidities (185). 

Several intervention studies have found that weight loss is associated with a reduced risk for diabetes among those at high risk of developing the disease (i.e. severely obese, with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or with a family history of diabetes) (187-189). One intervention study found that weight loss plus exercise reduced the risk of developing type 2 diabetes by 50% in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (189).  Wing et al. (188) found that a modest weight loss of 4.5 kg over 2 years, as a consequence of a lifestyle intervention including diet and/or exercise, reduced the risk of developing type 2 diabetes by 30% relative to no weight loss.  Furthermore, the positive effect of weight loss in reducing the risk of diabetes may be modified by other risk factors.  For example, a large randomized controlled trial in men found that the weight loss intervention reduced diabetes incidence among non-smokers, but not among smokers (190).  The benefits of weight loss and risk of type 2 diabetes have been also been reported in population-based settings (172, 181).  Long-term maintenance of weight loss is more important than initial weight loss.  Klein et al (184) reviewed some strategies that were associated with successful long-term weight loss, such as eating a low calorie, low fat diet, reducing portion sizes and snacking, daily breakfast consumption, participating in regular physical activity, and frequently monitoring body weight.

IV  Cancer

In contrast to cardiovascular disease and diabetes, obesity receives less attention as a risk factor for many cancers.  In countries where obesity is growing rapidly, such as the US, 3.2% of all new cancers may be potentially attributable to obesity (191).   Elevated body weight has been linked with increased risk of some cancers, including cancers of the colon, esophageal, prostate, kidney, gallbladder and in women cancer of the breast and reproductive system (192).

1. Breast Cancer 

A complex relationship exists between obesity and breast cancer risk (193).  While some prospective studies have found that increased weight or BMI is associated with increased breast cancer risk among postmenopausal women (2, 194-199), others have found little or no association (200-202).  Conversely, among premenopausal women most cohort studies have found either no association (198, 199, 202) or an inverse association between BMI and breast cancer risk (194, 197, 200, 201, 203, 204).  One explanation for this apparent interaction between obesity and menopausal status on breast cancer risk is that obesity exerts different effects on circulating endogenous sex steroid hormones among postmenopausal women (205, 206). 

Other predictors, such as height (202, 203, 207, 208), body fat distribution (2, 209-212), and weight change during adulthood (208, 211, 213, 214) have also been linked to breast cancer.  In the Nurses’ Health Study (209), central adiposity determined by waist circumference and WHR was associated with an increased risk of postmenopausal breast cancer, with the greatest elevation in risk evident among postmenopausal women who were not receiving hormone replacement therapy.   

2. Endometrial Cancer

Obesity is strongly related to endometrial cancer in both pre- and postmenopausal women (192), with an estimated 34% to 56% of endometrial cancer cases attributable to increased BMI (213).  Several cohort (194, 215-217) and case control studies (218-224) have found a positive association between endometrial cancer and excess weight, particularly among older women (194, 218, 223). Although less consistently than BMI, other measures of obesity such as waist circumference (222, 225), waist-to-thigh ratio (220)  and subscapular-to-tricep skinfold (a measure of central versus peripheral obesity) (224) have been positively associated with endometrial cancer, independent of BMI.  Despite the fact that endometrial cancer is less common than breast cancer, a greater number of endometrial cancer cases are attributable to obesity.  

3. Colon Cancer

Colorectal cancer is the fourth most common cancer in the world among both sexes and the second in developed countries (226).  Cohort studies have consistently demonstrated a strong positive relationship between BMI and risk of colon cancer in men (227-231) with weaker associations found in women (231-234).  Murphy et al.(231) examined the association between BMI and colon cancer mortality over a 12-year follow-up in 496,239 women and 379,167 men and found that the relative risks of colon cancer mortality increased linearly across all categories of BMI in men but not women.   These authors suggest that the greater tendency for abdominal or central adiposity in men may be one reason for the gender differences observed in studies.  Alternatively, the possible protective effect of estrogen may explain the observed weaker associations between BMI and the risk of colon cancer among women.  A few observational studies found stronger positive associations between obesity and colon cancer in premenopausal women, but results have been inconsistent in postmenopausal women or those taking hormone replacement therapy (235, 236)

Some observational studies found that body fat distribution, as determined by WHR or waist circumference, is an important independent risk factor of colon cancer (2, 227, 233).  In the Health Professionals Follow-up Cohort Study, both waist circumference and WHR were strong risk factors of colon cancer, independent of BMI (227).  In this cohort, after accounting for BMI, relative risks of 3.41 (95% CI 1.52-7.66) were seen for men with WHR 0.99 compared to those with a WHR  <0.90, and relative risks of 2.6 (95%CI 1.33-4.96) were seen for men with a  waist circumference 43 inches compared to men with a waist circumference <35 inches. Furthermore, the effect of a higher BMI as well as greater waist circumference may differ for cases of cancer occurring in the proximal or distal colon (237).

4. Kidney Cancer 

Although several risk factors of renal cell cancer have been identified, including obesity, cigarette smoking, hypertension and certain occupational exposures, the mechanisms by which these risk factors contribute to the development of the cancer remain largely unknown (192).   However, based on evidence from case-control studies, obesity represents one of the more consistently observed risk factors for renal cell carcinoma (238-242) with a more pronounced association found among women (107, 242, 243). .  However, a meta-analysis of 28 studies found that 27% of renal cell cancers cases among men and 29% among women could be attributed to overweight and obesity (244). 

Few prospective studies have examined the importance of fat distribution and how age-related changes in weight may influence risk of renal cell carcinoma among older populations (13).    Prineas & Folsom (245) prospectively examined the association among several risk factors for renal cell carcinoma in 35,192 postmenopausal women over a 7-year follow-up period.  In this study, WHR, weight at age 18 and the degree of weight gained between ages 18 and 50 years were independent predictors of renal cell carcinoma.   A prospective study over 25 years of follow-up in Swedish men found that the risk of renal cell cancer was almost doubled among men with a BMI ≥ 27.8 kg/m2 compared to those with a BMI ≤ 21.8  kg/m2, suggesting that even small excesses in body weight increase risk among men (246).  However, a study among Norwegian men and women reported an increased risk of renal cell carcinoma in both sexes with increasing BMI (247)..

Further prospective cohort studies examining the association between body fat distribution and renal cell carcinoma are warranted; however, current evidence would suggest that a high BMI probably increases the risk of renal cell carcinoma (192).

5. Other Cancers

Variable evidence exists for a role of overweight in relation to cancers at other sites.

Several studies report the incidence of gallbladder cancer to be positively associated with body weight (246, 248), particularly among women (246, 249).  A 13-year prospective cohort study of 750,000 US men and women found that gallbladder cancer mortality rates were significantly higher among overweight women, but not overweight men (248).  Based on the limited evidence, it would appear that gallbladder cancer may be associated with a high BMI, particularly among women (192). 

With respect to prostate cancer, some observational studies have suggested that body weight is associated with an increase risk of prostate cancer (248, 250-252);  however the vast majority have found no consistent association (253-255).  Recent studies suggest that obesity may be associated with more advanced forms of prostate cancer (256, 257).  Interestingly, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, one of the methods to diagnose prostate carcinoma, are inversely associated with BMI (258).  Furthermore, 15% of biopsy-detected prostate cancer is in men with normal PSA levels (259).  Misclassification of the diagnosis of prostate cancer due to improper diagnostic methods may be one of the possible explanations for the inconsistent association between obesity and prostate cancer.  Another longitudinal study showed that although overweight people (BMI >25) have lower PSA levels and a lower stage of disease at diagnosis, they have a greater risk of being in a worse prognostic group then those with normal BMI (260).  Thus, further investigations are needed to confirm whether the role of obesity is an important risk factor for prostate cancer.

IV Morbid conditions associated with obesity

Several additional diseases and health conditions are associated with overweight and obesity.

1. Gallbladder disease

It is somewhat ironic that obesity and weight loss among obese persons are each independent risk factors for gallbladder disease (261). In a systematic review of the effects of weight loss on gallstone formation in obese patients, Everhart  (261)found that 10-25% of men and women may develop gallstones during the first months of a highly calorie-restricted diet, with about one-third going on to develop symptoms of gallbladder disease. 

Most gallstones in the US are thought to be cholesterol gallstones, and their association with obesity is thought to be a consequence of excessive hepatic secretion of cholesterol, resulting in bile that is cholesterol-supersaturated (262).  The sex-specific differences for gallbladder disease are striking, with prevalence much higher in women than men, and important differences existing across racial/ethnic groups within sex (263).   An analysis of NHANESIII data (69) found prevalence ratios of 4 to 21 across obesity classes of increasing severity for women under age the age of 55 years. Although women age 55 and over, as well as men (both older and younger), experienced elevated risks with increasing degrees of obesity, these associations were of more moderate magnitude.  In middle-aged men and women studied prospectively over a 10-year period, risks of the development of gallstones across obesity classes were similar for men and women, with relative risks of about 3 for the most severe obesity class (1).    In women, obesity and adult weight gain after age 18 are each important predictors of gallstones (264).  Compared to women with BMI < 21 kg/m2, relative risks ranged from 2.8 (95% CI 1.8-4.3) for BMI of 25 to 27 kg/m2 to 6.1 (95% CI 3.6, 10) for BMI >36 kg/m2. Risk of gallstones for women who had major weight gain (> 15kg) after the age of 18 of age was three-fold higher compared to women who remained weight stable.  Overall, obesity has been consistently shown to be a powerful risk factor for the development of gallbladder disease in women. Although men have a lower prevalence of gallstones than women, a recent prospective study in the US (265) found that abdominal obesity, as reflected by waist circumference or waist-to-hip-ratio, is a strong predictor of the incidence of gallstones in men independent of BMI.  This suggests that abdominal obesity may be a better predictor than obesity of gallstone formation in men.  Furthermore, the presence of metabolic syndrome was associated with a more than 3-fold increase in the risk of gallstone disease (OR = 3.2; 95% CI 1.7-6.0) (266).

 Sleep apnea & respiratory problems   

As described in greater detail in Chapter 13, obese patients suffer from a variety of respiratory complications such as obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) (267, 268), obesity hypoventilation syndrome (269), symptoms of dyspnea, and possibly increased risk of asthma (270, 271).  One recent study found that over 50% of obese patients with a mean BMI > 40 kg/m2 were affected by OSA (267), a higher estimate than had been previously reported (268). A large population-based study reported that for BMI > 28 kg/m2, the prevalence of excessive daytime sleepiness, which is considered to be a cardinal sign of sleep apnea, increased in an exponential manner (268, 272).  In a population-based prospective study of 602 Wisconsin employees, an increase of 1 SD in BMI was associated with a 4-fold increase in risk of OSA (273).  Further evidence suggests central obesity and increased neck circumference are more important risk factors for OSA (267, 274).  Several dietary intervention studies have found that weight loss has been associated with improvements in sleep-disordered breathing (275-277). Given that OSA is an important risk factor for hypertension (278), CVD (279), stroke (280), glucose intolerance, and insulin resistance (281), weight loss may simultaneously reduce sleep breathing disorders and other morbid health conditions in obese patients.  

The findings of cross-sectional studies suggest that individuals with asthma tend to weigh more (282, 283).  In US adults, results from the NHANES III (1988-1994) indicate that one in three persons with asthma is obese, which is 44% higher than the prevalence of obesity among persons without asthma (284).  The directionality of the relation is difficult to assess, given that obese patients may gain weight as a result of reduced physical activity.  In a recent longitudinal analysis based on 89,061 women aged 27-44 years from the Nurses’ Health Study, BMI and weight gain were both significantly and prospectively associated with the development of adult-onset asthma after controlling for other risk factors including age, race, smoking, physical activity, energy intake, hysterectomy status, birth weight and duration of breastfeeding (271).   In this study, nurses who gained more than 25 kg  since the age of 18 years had the highest RR for the development of asthma (4.7; 95%CI, 3.1-7.0) compared to those who remained weight stable.  Chen and colleagues (270) examined the relation between obesity and asthma in 17,605 Canadians participating in the National Population Health Survey and found that the prevalence of asthma increased with increasing BMI in women, but not in men.  Increasing BMI and female sex were among the significant predictors of asthma prevalence in a population-based case-control study with 2788 asthma cases and 39,637 controls (285). The study also found that the risk of having asthma increased with increasing BMI, with the greatest increase among individuals with a BMI between 40 and 60 (OR = 2.8; 95% CI, 2.3-3.5), after adjusting for possible confounders including physical activity.  Furthermore, among a few trials, it has been demonstrated that weight loss can improve lung function in obese women (286), although the benefit may be limited to patients with pre-existing asthma. More studies in diverse populations are needed to confirm that obesity is a significant risk factor for asthma.  

 

3. Osteoarthritis

Obesity is a potent risk factor for osteoarthritis, particularly of weight bearing joints such as the hip and knee (287-290).  Although it is now recognized that the risk factors for the development of osteoarthritis and the risk factors for the progression of the disease may not always be the same, obesity may contribute as a risk factor for both the development and the progression of osteoarthritis (291).  Two possible mechanisms may account for the observed association between obesity and osteoarthritis: the mechanical effects on the joint of increased load and/or systemic effects such as overall bone mineral density or a circulating growth or bone factor.  The suggestion that the association between obesity and osteoarthritis is a spurious finding due to reverse causation (i.e. arthritis reduces activity and this in turn results in obesity) is unlikely.  These associations have been seen in prospective studies (288), in addition to cross-sectional (287, 290) and case-control studies (292).  In the Framingham Heart Study, initial weight was a strong predictor of osteoarthritis of the knee, based on X-rays taken at mean age 73 and after 35 years of follow-up.  For men, the relative risk of knee osteoarthritis was 1.51 (95%CI 1.14, 1.98) in the highest weight quintile, compared to the lower 3 weight quintile categories.  For women, the relative risks were higher; relative risks of 1.4 (95% CI 1.1, 1.9) and 2.1 (95% CI 1.7, 2.6) were seen for women in the 4th and 5th weight quintiles, respectively (288).  A large population-based case-control study in England (292)  with cases identified prior to surgical treatment for primary knee osteoarthritis and controls matched appropriately, reported odds ratios of 2.5 (95% CI 1.8, 3.6) and 6.6 (95% CI 4.4, 10.5) for overweight and obese cases, compared to respective controls. In this study, a strong monotonically increasing risk with increasing BMI was observed.  The authors emphasize the public health implications of these strong relative risks in the face of a common disease; based on their analyses, they estimate that 11% or 24% of cases of knee osteoarthritis would be avoided if overweight and obese individuals reduced their weight by 2 kg and 5 kg, respectively (292).  Accordingly, weight loss has been recommended as one of the non-pharmacologic standard therapies for osteoarthritis in overweight patients (American College of Rheumatology Subcommittee on Osteoarthritis (293).  In light of the recommendation, a recent randomized clinical trial (294) demonstrated that in older overweight adults (BMI >28 kg/m2) with knee osteoarthritis, a combination of modest weight loss and moderate exercise significantly improved overall physical disability.

Unlike the strong association demonstrated between obesity and knee osteoarthritis, the associations between obesity and hip osteoarthritis have been weaker (295) or less consistent (296).   This difference may reflect discrepancies in the method for measuring hip osteoarthritis based on clinical findings (such as hip pain) or radiological description (297).  Preliminary findings of an unpublished prospective study in Rotterdam (297) have taken this methodological disagreement into account, suggesting a strong association (OR = 4.1; 95% CI 2.6, 6.9) between radiological defined hip osteoarthritis and hip pain for women with BMI >27.4 kg/m2. Further epidemiological studies are needed to support the link between obesity and hip osteoarthritis.

4. Cataract

Age-related cataract is a major public health problem in the US, affecting approximately 50% of persons aged 75 years and older (298).  Although the etiology of a cataract is multi-factorial and differs depending on its location in the lens, obesity is one potential risk factor that may influence its development.   Several plausible mechanisms exist through which obesity may increase the risk of cataract.  For example, elevated body weight is associated with increase blood pressure, glucose intolerance and insulin resistance, three conditions linked with the development of cataracts.  

The epidemiological evidence linking BMI and cataract has been inconsistent.  Both higher (299-301) and lower BMIs (302, 303) have been associated with increased risk of certain types of cataract.  Consistent with some reports, Schaumberg and coworkers (301) observed that BMI was positively associated with risk of cataract in men.  In the same cohort, WHR was also positively associated with cataract, independent of BMI.   Among the co-morbidities associated with obesity, diabetes has a role as a biological mechanism linking obesity and cataract, especially with posterior subcapular (PSC) cataract.  Relative to women with normal fasting glucose concentrations (<7.0 mmol/L), diabetic women have 31% increased risk of having PSC cataract (OR = 4.1; 95% CI 1.8, 9.4) (304).  In addition, women with BMI > 30 kg/m2 or waist circumference > 89 cm have a higher risk of PSC compare to those with BMI <25 kg/m2 (OR = 2.5; 95% CI 1.2, 5.2) or waist circumference < 80 cm (OR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.0, 5.2).  Previous work in the same female cohort (305) identified that the relative risks of cataract from a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI were slightly attenuated after adjustment for diabetes, with female diabetics having 2.88 (95% CI 2.17, 3.81) times the risk of PSC cataract and males having 2.52 (95% CI 1.52, 4.18) times the risk compared to non-diabetics.  Although it is still difficult to draw conclusions regarding the role of BMI in cataract since the etiologies of cataracts differ, existing evidence suggests that obesity is related to cataract, whether independently or mediated through other disease pathways. 

V  All-cause mortality

In the context of population-based inquiry, it is difficult to comprehensively assess the overall effect of obesity on health. One approach is to examine all-cause mortality. From a methodologic perspective, this has the advantage of avoiding the issue of competing risks and misclassification of cause of death. The downside is that this approach accounts only for the outcome of death, which represents the most severe form of disease.

Because of the relative ease of conducting these studies, the early population-based literature on the health consequences of obesity contained many articles on the relation of obesity to mortality (31, 248, 306-308).  Increasingly, it became obvious that there were several methodologic flaws that threatened the validity of these studies. Failure to account for smoking, failure to eliminate the first several years of follow-up and overcontrol of mediating variables all tend to attenuate the observed association between weight status and BMI (309).  More recent studies have generally addressed these pitfalls.  In a comprehensive analysis of 5 large prospective studies representing the mortality experience of almost one million persons, findings were remarkably consistent: the relative risks become elevated at BMIs between 25 kg/m2 and 29 kg/m2. At BMI’s in excess of 30 kg/m2 (obesity), a 40 to 60% elevation in risk is observed, and at BMI’s over 35 kg/m2 (obesity class 2 and 3) the relative risk is approximately 2, or a doubling of risk (28).  Based on 1991 population characteristics, the authors estimate that in the United States approximately 300,000 deaths annually are attributable to obesity (28). 

The role of age in the association of obesity and mortality continues to be controversial. The debate was sparked when the 1990 USDA Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which presented separate BMI standards for adults over and under the age 35, were revised in 1995 to recommend single guideline that did not vary with age.  These guidelines also recommended that after adult height was reached adults should not gain more than 10 pounds (310).  However, within a ten-year period, the incidence of major weight gain (5 kg, or 12 pounds) was 3.9% among men and 8.4% among women (311).  Evidence was sought to establish whether the nadir, taken to define optimal weight or BMI, of the U-shaped weight/mortality curve changed with age.  The debate to resolve became difficult for 2 reasons: 1) the aforementioned methodologic complexity of the basic relation seemed to have confused this issue (312)  and, 2) there are a limited number of datasets with adequate data to examine the question. In an analysis of the mortality experience of approximately 62,000 men and 262,000 women enrolled in the American Cancer Society’s Cancer Prevention Study I, based on self-reported current height and weight at baseline, there was no evidence of a shift in the optimal BMI below age 75.  Notable was the observation that with increasing age the curves became more shallow (313).  This flattening of relative risk occurs because the mortality rate of the entire population increases markedly with age so that on a “relative scale” (such as relative risk) the risk due to obesity with advancing age appears to be reduced.  However, as pointed out by Stevens (312), on an absolute scale (such as risk difference), the excess number overweight persons continues to increase with age.  Recently, Flegal et al (314) pointed out that the estimates of deaths attributable to obesity is the US did not necessarily represent the total US population because of exclusions to control for baseline health status and the exclusion or under-representation of older adults.  They suggested that a weighted-sum method would provide more accurate and precise age-specific estimates of mortality risk for older adults.  Hu et al (315) reported concerns that the arguments by Flegal et al (314) did not take into account chronic, long-term obesity, as the relative risk calculated from the oldest age groups would not reflect the true long-term impact of obesity on mortality.

CONCLUSIONS:

The health consequences of obesity are substantial, with type 2 diabetes mellitus, heart disease and gallbladder disease among the more common obesity-related diseases.  The large numbers of children entering adulthood overweight, together with weight gain in adulthood portend an enormous burden, in terms of human suffering, lost productivity, and health care expenditures.  The location of fat is also important and clearly represents a risk factor for obesity-related disease, independent of overweight; not included in this review are the considerable psychosocial consequences of obesity. Given the magnitude of the problem on a population basis, individual approaches discussed in the remaining chapters will likely need to be reinforced, supported and extended, by integrated environmental and policy approaches.

Acknowledgement:

The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Sarah Phillips, Marcella Rumawas and Rosaline Bowen.  The authors gratefully acknowledge James B. Meigs, M.D., M.P.H. for his helpful comments. 

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